But by what standards should we predict alien agendas? The “anthropomorphic fallacy” (the assumption that we can attribute the behavior of other animals to human motives and feelings) is well known among behavioral psychologists as an error in reasoning. Certainly, the same caution should apply to speculation about alien behaviors. That notwithstanding, there are reasons consistent with human behavior as to why an alien civilization might not want overt contact. (To name just two: We may be subjects of a research protocol that overt contact would violate; they may be up to no good and don’t want us to know about it.) The argument that abduction reports must be dismissed because the reputed behavior is not overt is based on fallacious reasoning or, at best, limited imagination.
Moreover, it by no means represents a consensus of contemporary thought. Rodeghier (1996) surveyed over 500 scientists (members of professional organizations in astronomy, evolution science, geology, psychology, and zoology) and found that about 38% regarded the probability “that an extraterrestrial civilization successful at interstellar space travel, having discovered Earth, will refrain from overt contact with humans” as at least .50. That is, they regard it at least as likely that aliens would refrain from overt contact than engage in it.
(b) Arguments in Support of the ET Explanation
Proponents of the ET hypothesis take the position that a veridical interpretation of the abduction experience is, at least, not inconsistent with the reported characteristics of the phenomenon, and that in the absence of empirical support for more parsimonious theories, its consideration is not inappropriate. Furthermore, they point to a number of features of the abduction experience as supporting the ET hypothesis. These features are discussed below.
Abduction accounts are consistent. Those who argue for the veridicality of abduction experiences cite the consistency of the accounts, down to very specific details. For example, Jacobs (1992) regards “the strongest evidence presented [to be] … the congruence of narrative and the richness of exact detail” (p. 239). While individual investigators such as Jacobs have documented this detail in regard to their own cases, Bullard (1987, 1994) has compared cases from a wide range of investigators. Based on his exhaustive analysis of abduction experience content, Bullard (1987) concluded:
The list of resemblances and recurrences goes on and on to build an impressive case for the one point this study proves beyond a reasonable doubt-abduction reports tell a consistent story. No accident, random hoax or purely personal fantasy could reasonably explain so much consistency throughout this sizable body of reports. [Bullard, 1987, p. 353]
In a more recent analysis, Bullard (1994) notes that both prominent aspects and obscure elements of the abduction experience recur across investigators: “The range of differences among major features and main patterns is quite narrow…. Abduction reports seem to converge toward a unity of content irrespective of the investigator” (p. 615).
Although consistency is well documented, the source of this consistency is a subject of debate. Critics of the ET hypothesis are quick to point out that the abduction experience has had so much media exposure, and fictional depictions of aliens are so rife in our culture, that the raw material for fantasy production is readily available. For example, Kottmeyer (1989) describes numerous instances in which fictional material is consistent with reported abduction experiences, including UFO characteristics, alien descriptions, genetic experimentation, implants, and alien motivations.
Notwithstanding, the argument that this material is the source of fantasy production requires that fantasy is itself a reasonable explanation for the abduction experience. As discussed previously, the data do not support this contention.
Regardless, it is not consistency per se that has grabbed the attention of researchers, but the implicit notion that this consistency is much greater than would be expected by chance. For example, Mack (1994) refers to “the high degree of consistency of detailed abduction accounts” (p. 43). But “high” relative to what? Jacobs (1992) refers to “the extraordinary convergence of the abductee narratives” (p. 302). But by what yardstick is this convergence extraordinary?
Certainly the standard of measure cannot be subjective impression. That measure of chance is notoriously inconsistent with empirical reality. Rather, chance must be determined by statistical tests of probability. To determine chance in regard to abduction content, one need only compare formal abduction accounts with those solicited from a random sample of the population (a control group). The Lawson (1977), Randles (1994a) and Lynn and Pezzo (1994) experiments discussed earlier are attempts at this. As previously mentioned, none represents a definitive analysis of relative consistency, and their results demonstrate consistencies and inconsistencies alike. Nevertheless, their findings at least suggest caution in using content consistency as a criterion for abduction-experience veridicality.
One argument that has been raised in response to this plea for caution is that very specific content-not well known outside the investigator community-also appears in a frequency that could not be expected by chance. For instance, Jacobs (1992) refers to “many other abduction procedures [which] have never been publicized or written about even in the most esoteric UFO literature, yet virtually all abductees describe them” (p. 302). Of course, it is precisely this absence of reference in the literature that makes an evaluation of such content impossible.
Perhaps one example of this seemingly unique content is revealed in Bullard’s (1994) survey, which indicates that several investigators have obtained reports of specific alien insignia (for example, a phoenix or winged serpent). But since no one has asked a population of control subjects to suggest (imagine) a motif for such insignia, nor tabulated the precise proportion of abduction experiencers who report this motif (relative to those who report insignia of any kind), it is not known if the probability of such specific content is indeed beyond chance expectation. Until such tests are carried out, the significance of abduction-report consistency will remain a matter of subjective impression.